Through Election Day on November 3, we track statewide ballot returns from the Secretary of State’s daily reports and compare them with 2022 and 2018 at the same number of days out: the share of active voters who have returned a ballot, the party breakdown, and whether turnout is running ahead of or behind the last two midterms.
Keating Research is a Denver survey research firm. Since 2010 we have polled for candidates, ballot measures, foundations, and institutions, and our final numbers hold up against the results.
Every project is custom. We write the questionnaire with you, field it the way the population calls for, and deliver a report you can act on within days of the last interview.
Benchmark and tracking surveys of voters and residents. Hybrid, text-to-web, and live-interviewer phone surveys, sampled from the voter file so the people we reach are the people who decide.
We test the arguments for and against, find the words that move people, and develop the winning narrative before the ads air, so your campaign spends on what works.
In-person and online groups across Colorado and the Mountain West, moderated by Chris Keating, with verbatim reporting that shows how real people talk about the issue.
Turnout models, weighting targets, and persuadable universes built from the voter file, so your poll and your field program describe the same electorate.
Our final pre-election polls next to the certified results. Judge the work for yourself.
Five bond questions on one ballot. We tracked all five for the campaign through three tracking surveys of likely Denver voters, hybrid phone and online, with the final read fielded October 27–28.
Boebert vs. Frisch. Five weeks before the election, our survey for the Frisch campaign had the race at Boebert 47, Frisch 45, a statistical dead heat. Forecasters rated the seat safe for the incumbent and the poll was widely dismissed. On election night the race was decided by 546 votes; Frisch most likely closed the remaining two points in the final stretch.
Reported by The Colorado Sun and Colorado Politics.
500 likely voters by live phone and text, margin of error 4.4 points, 7% undecided.
Bond results are the certified Denver vote. Poll figures are the yes vote including leaners from the last tracking survey that asked each measure: Tracking Poll #3 (October 27–28, n=400) for 2A and 2D, and Tracking Poll #2 (October 13–15, n=500) for 2B, 2C, and 2E.
We work with four kinds of clients. The standard is the same for each: research that is right, on time, and readable by the person who has to make the call.
From feasibility through election day: can it pass, with what language, and with what narrative.
Benchmarks, tracking, and message tests for statewide, congressional, and municipal races.
Attitude tracking and issue research for companies, universities, and public agencies.
Research that shapes a policy agenda and tests how to talk about it.
Memos we and our clients have released. Reporters and researchers are welcome to cite them with attribution; the methodology statement is in each memo.
Statewide hybrid survey of 800 likely 2026 voters for Conserve and Protect Our Water on water supply, conservation, and interstate negotiation. Fielded December 1–7, 2025, margin of error ±3.8 points.
Keating Research is based in Denver. You work directly with the people who design, field, and analyze your research.
Chris Keating has conducted survey research in Colorado since the 1990s and founded Keating Research in 2010. He writes questionnaires and reports to be understood by the person who has to use them, and has led thousands of survey and focus group projects for campaigns, foundations, and institutions. Before founding the firm he was Vice President at Harstad Strategic Research and Research Director at Talmey-Drake Research.
He holds a PhD in economics from the University of Illinois and a BA in political science from Northwestern University, and has lived in Colorado since 1995.
Spencer runs the firm’s data and methods work: questionnaire design, sampling and weighting, turnout and electorate modeling, and voter-file targeting. He builds the firm’s analysis tools in R and Python and delivers the toplines, crosstabs, and models clients use on election night and after.
He keeps the firm current on survey methods, sampling, and the changing ways voters can be reached. He holds a BA from Dartmouth College.
Tell us what decision you need to make and when.