Colorado ballot returns, updated daily through Election Day
New AZ-01 poll: Shah leads Feely 49% to 45%
Through Election Day on November 3, we track statewide ballot returns from the Secretary of State’s daily reports and compare them with 2022 and 2018 at the same number of days out: the share of active voters who have returned a ballot, the party breakdown, and whether turnout is running ahead of or behind the last two midterms.
Keating Research is a Denver polling and survey research firm. Since 2010 we have polled for candidates, ballot measures, foundations, and institutions, and our final numbers hold up against the results.
on Keating Research
“A respected Democratic pollster”
“Correctly forecast the last two presidential elections in Colorado”
“A reputable Democratic firm”
Every project is custom. We write the questionnaire with you, field it the way the population calls for, and deliver a report you can act on.
Who we work with: Ballot measure campaigns · Candidates · Public affairs and institutions · Foundations and advocates
Benchmark and tracking surveys of voters and residents. Hybrid, text-to-web, and live-caller phone surveys, sampled from the voter file so the people we reach are the people who decide.
We test the arguments for and against, find the words that move people, and develop the winning narrative before the ads air, so your campaign spends on what works.
In-person and online groups across Colorado and the Mountain West, moderated by Chris Keating, with verbatim reporting that shows how real people talk about the issue.
Turnout models, quota targets, and persuadable universes built from the voter file, so your poll and your field program describe the same electorate.
Our final pre-election polls next to the certified results. Judge the work for yourself.
Five bond questions on one ballot. We tracked all five for the campaign through three tracking surveys of likely Denver voters, hybrid phone and online, with the final read fielded October 27–28.
Boebert vs. Frisch. Five weeks before the election, our survey for the Frisch campaign had the race at Boebert 47, Frisch 45, a statistical dead heat. Forecasters rated the seat safe for the incumbent. On election night the race was decided by 546 votes; Frisch closed the remaining two points in the final stretch.
Reported by The Colorado Sun and The Hill.
500 likely voters by live phone and text, margin of error 4.4 points, 7% undecided.
“There’s a very good pollster in Colorado, Chris Keating, president of Keating Research who’s polled for Adam Frisch … who ran in 2022 against incumbent Lauren Boebert and came incredibly close. … And it turned out that Keating was absolutely right [Frisch lost to Boebert by only 546 votes].”
Bond results are the certified Denver vote. Poll figures are the yes vote including leaners from the last tracking survey that asked each measure: Tracking Poll #3 (October 27–28, n=400) for 2A and 2D, and Tracking Poll #2 (October 13–15, n=500) for 2B, 2C, and 2E.
Our final public poll before each of these elections, next to the certified result. Margins are percentage points; the difference is between the two margins.
| Year | Race | Keating final poll | Result | Difference | Winner ahead? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | President | Harris +12 | Harris +10.9 | 1.1 | Yes |
| 2022 | CO-3 U.S. House | Boebert +2 | Boebert +0.2 | 1.8 | Yes |
| 2020 | President | Biden +12 | Biden +13.5 | 1.5 | Yes |
| 2020 | U.S. Senate | Hickenlooper +11 | Hickenlooper +9.3 | 1.7 | Yes |
| 2018 | Governor | Polis +8 | Polis +10.6 | 2.6 | Yes |
| 2016 | President | Clinton +5 | Clinton +4.9 | 0.1 | Yes |
| 2012 | President | Obama +4 | Obama +5.4 | 1.4 | Yes |
Colorado statewide races unless noted. The CO-3 poll was fielded five weeks before the election.
We work with four kinds of clients. The standard is the same for each: research that is right, on time, and clear.
From feasibility through election day: can it pass, with what language, and with what narrative.
Benchmarks, tracking, and message tests for statewide, congressional, and municipal races.
Attitude tracking and issue research for companies, universities, and public agencies.
Research that shapes a policy agenda and tests how to talk about it.
Our own public polls and memos our clients have released. Reporters and researchers are welcome to cite them with attribution; the methodology statement is in each memo.
Keating Research public poll of 500 likely voters in AZ-01: Democrat Amish Shah 49%, Republican Jay Feely 45%, an 8-point swing toward the Democrat from 2024. Fielded October 26–28, 2026, margin of error ±4.4 points.
Statewide hybrid survey of 800 likely 2026 voters for Conserve and Protect Our Water on water supply, conservation, and interstate negotiation. Fielded December 1–7, 2025, margin of error ±3.8 points.
Keating Research is based in Denver. You work directly with the people who design, field, and analyze your research. We travel throughout Colorado and the Mountain West for in-person work: client meetings, board and staff retreats, and presentations to city councils, commissions, and agencies.
Chris Keating has conducted survey research in Colorado since the 1990s and founded Keating Research in 2010. He writes questionnaires and reports to be understood by the person who has to use them, and has led thousands of survey and focus group projects for campaigns, foundations, and institutions. Before founding the firm he was Vice President at Harstad Strategic Research and Research Director at Talmey-Drake Research.
He holds a PhD in economics from the University of Illinois and a BA in political science from Northwestern University, and has lived in Colorado since 1995.
Spencer runs the firm’s data and methods work: questionnaire design, sampling and quotas, turnout and electorate modeling, and voter-file targeting. He builds the firm’s analysis tools in R and Python and delivers the toplines, crosstabs, and analysis.
He keeps the firm current on survey methods, sampling, and the changing ways voters can be reached. Born and raised in Colorado, he holds a BA in politics, philosophy, and economics from Dartmouth College.
Tell us what decision you need to make and when.
