Keating Research, OnSight Public Affairs and Martin Campaigns have teamed up on the Keating– OnSight–Martin (KOM) Colorado Poll (view topline results) which provides informative, accurate results using live- interviewer telephone surveys and was Colorado’s most accurate in the 2016 Presidential predicting Hillary would win by 5 points in Colorado. The new Keating–OnSight–Martin (KOM) Colorado PollTM conducted October 25-30, 2018, is the most recent installment in our effort to track the Colorado Gubernatorial election and attitudes toward Donald Trump.
Democrat Jared Polis leads by 8 points in the Colorado governor’s race.
This is the first poll where Polis holds a majority (50%) of the vote over Republican Walker Stapleton (42%). Support for Scott Helker, Libertarian is at 4%, Bill Hammons, Unity is at 1% – while only 4% of respondents remain undecided. Polis has led in every poll released so far this year and looks like he will win the election to succeed Democratic incumbent John Hickenlooper. According to pollster Chris Keating – “In 23 years of polling in Colorado, a statewide candidate with this type of consistent 7- to 8-point lead in the polls has never lost the election. Our statistical model gives Jared Polis a 98% chance of winning.”
Republican turnout has been surprisingly weak in this election. The turnout in the mid-term election is forecast to be evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans and both candidates are equally supported by their party base – registered Democrats for Polis (88% Polis – 6% Stapleton) and registered Republicans for Stapleton (87% Stapleton – 8% Polis). The weak Republican turnout and robust Unaffiliated voter support for Polis (53% vs. 32% for Stapleton) will drive Polis to victory on election night.
Polis also holds a 20 point margin with women (56% Polis – 36% Stapleton) and leads by 18 points with younger voters age 18-49 (55% Polis – 37% Stapleton).
Another clear indication of a Polis win is that he leads by nearly 2-to-1 (61% Polis – 33% Stapleton) in the suburban Arapahoe and Jefferson counties that tend to determine the outcome of Colorado elections.
1 Keating–Onsight–Martin (KOM) Colorado PollTM (View Crosstabs)
Colorado voters are souring on Trump.
In an election seen as a referendum on the Trump Presidency, a majority (59%) of Colorado voters have an unfavorable view of Donald Trump, compared to 39% favorable. Democrats are almost universally negative toward Donald Trump (95% unfavorable to 5% favorable). Republicans like Trump (82% favorable – 15% unfavorable). Trump’s brand of negativism has turned off Unaffiliated (31% favorable to 67% unfavorable) and suburban Arapahoe / Jefferson county voters (31% favorable to 67% unfavorable).
- Trump’s unfavorable rating is significantly worse than what we saw with President Barack Obama during the same time period of the 2014 midterm election. In 2014, 52% of Colorado voters held an unfavorable view Obama, compared to 59% of Colorado voters who have an unfavorable view of Donald Trump.
John Hickenlooper remains popular in Colorado.
Hickenlooper is leaving the governor’s office on a high note with a nearly 2-to-1 ratio of support (59% favorable to 33% unfavorable). Hickenlooper, who campaigned on bringing people together to solve problems and ran positive campaigns, is particularly well-liked by Unaffiliated voters (61% favorable to 29% unfavorable). “Hickenlooper has an 8-year track record of bringing Coloradans together,” said OnSight Partner Curtis Hubbard, “and his favorability is a nod to his thoughtful approach to promoting jobs and the economy across the state, protecting Colorado’s air and water, and tackling some of the trickiest issues facing our state, be they health care and gun violence.”
The K-O-M Colorado poll is recognized by Democrats and Republicans alike as providing extremely accurate election forecasting in Colorado. This polling data is based on 517 live-interviewer telephone surveys conducted October 25-30, 2018, among likely 2018 voters statewide in Colorado: 61% conducted on cell-phone and 39% conducted on a land line. For this sample of 517 interviews the worst case margin of error at the 95% level is plus or minus 4.3%. Please see the topline results for question wording and cross tabulations for subgroup results. View Topline Results View Crosstabs