Home Public polling Arizona’s 1st District
Keating Research public poll · Released
Shah leads Feely by 4 in Arizona’s 1st District, a seat Republicans won in 2022 and 2024
“The plain reading is a Democratic wave across the country on Tuesday.”
Our October 26–28 survey of 500 likely November voters finds Democrat Amish Shah at 49% and Republican Jay Feely at 45% on the ballot for Congress, including voters who lean toward a candidate, with 6% undecided.
Two years ago Shah lost this seat to David Schweikert by 3.8 points. Today he leads by 4, an 8-point swing toward the Democrat.
Arizona’s 1st has voted Republican for Congress in both elections
In 2022, Schweikert held the seat over Democrat Jevin Hodge by 0.9 points (50.4% to 49.6%). In 2024 Donald Trump carried it 51.1% to 48.0%, and Schweikert beat Shah 51.9% to 48.1%. Shah’s 4-point lead today runs 7 points ahead of Kamala Harris’s 2024 result and 8 points ahead of his own.
| Election in AZ-01 | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing to 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 U.S. House | Hodge 49.6% | Schweikert 50.4% | R+0.9 | D+5 |
| 2024 President | Harris 48.0% | Trump 51.1% | R+3.1 | D+7 |
| 2024 U.S. House | Shah 48.1% | Schweikert 51.9% | R+3.8 | D+8 |
| 2026 U.S. House, KR poll (Oct. 26–28) | Shah 49% | Feely 45% | D+4 | — |
Swing is the 2026 poll margin minus the margin in that election.
A swing this size points to a Democratic wave nationally
Arizona’s 1st is the kind of seat that decides control of the House: a Republican-held suburban district that Trump carried in 2024, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+1. The 8-point swing in Arizona’s 1st says the national movement is showing up in exactly the kind of seat that decides the House.
The plain reading is a Democratic wave across the country on Tuesday.
Shah is winning with independents, moderates, and voters under 50
- Independents. Shah leads among independents 54% to 33% (+22), including independent men 54% to 28% (+25) and independents 50 and older 55% to 34% (+22).
- Moderates. Shah leads among moderates 66% to 28% (+38).
- Voters under 50. Shah leads among voters under 50 58% to 35% (+23), and among voters 35 to 49 60% to 30% (+31).
Methodology
- Population
- Likely November 2026 voters in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District.
- Completes
- 500 likely voters.
- Field dates
- October 26–28, 2026.
- Margin of error
- ±4.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level for the full sample; larger for subgroups.
Reporters and researchers are welcome to cite this poll with attribution to Keating Research. Questions about the poll: contact Spencer Keating.