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Arizona
Arizona polling
Keating Research polls Arizona voters for candidates, ballot measure campaigns, and organizations, from congressional districts to statewide initiatives. Our latest public poll is of Arizona’s 1st Congressional District.
Our latest Arizona poll
Arizona’s 1st is a Republican-held seat in the northeast Valley that Donald Trump carried in 2024. Two years ago Shah lost it to David Schweikert by 3.8 points; our October poll has him ahead by 4, an 8-point swing.
Shah leads among independents 54% to 33% and among voters under 50, 58% to 35%.
After the election we post the certified result next to our final poll on our track record page.
What we poll in Arizona
- Candidates. Benchmark, tracking, and message polls for congressional, legislative, county, and city campaigns.
- Ballot measures. Citizen initiatives, legislative referrals, and local bond and tax measures, from ballot-language testing through Election Day.
- Public affairs and institutions. Opinion research for cities, counties, agencies, and organizations that need to know where residents stand.
- Foundations and advocates. Issue research on water, the environment, health, and education, written so it can be used.
How we poll Arizona voters
Every survey starts from the Arizona voter file. We set completes by quota to a modeled likely electorate for the specific election, built from turnout history, by party registration, including the large share of Arizonans registered with no party, by age and gender, and by region: Maricopa County, Pima County, and the rest of the state. We field by phone and online to reach the voters phones alone now miss, and we deliver a memo, topline, and full crosstabs. More on how we poll.
A record you can check
Across seven races since 2012, our final public poll landed an average of 1.5 points from the certified margin and had the eventual winner ahead each time. Every race is on our track record page, next to the certified result.
In person in Arizona
We are based in Denver and travel throughout the Mountain West, including Arizona, for client meetings, board and staff retreats, and presentations to councils, commissions, and agencies. You work directly with the people who design, field, and analyze your research.
Questions about polling in Arizona
Does Keating Research poll in Arizona?
Yes. Keating Research polls Arizona voters for candidates, ballot measure campaigns, and organizations. Our most recent public Arizona poll, of Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, was fielded October 26–28, 2026 among 500 likely voters.
What did the Keating Research poll of Arizona’s 1st District find?
Democrat Amish Shah led Republican Jay Feely 49% to 45% on the ballot for Congress, including leaners, with 6% undecided. The margin of error is ±4.4 points. In 2024 Republican David Schweikert held the seat over Shah by 3.8 points.
How does Keating Research build an Arizona poll?
We draw the sample from the Arizona voter file and set completes by quota to a modeled likely electorate for the specific election, built from turnout history: party registration, including voters registered with no party, age, gender, and region. We field by phone and online so we reach the voters phones alone now miss.
Can Keating Research meet in person in Arizona?
Yes. We are based in Denver and travel throughout the Mountain West, including Arizona, for client meetings, board and staff retreats, and presentations.
How accurate are Keating Research’s polls?
Across seven races since 2012, our final public poll before the election landed an average of 1.5 points from the certified margin and had the eventual winner ahead each time. The full record is on our track record page.
Talk to us about your research
Keating Research is based in Denver. You work directly with the people who design, field, and analyze your research. We travel throughout Colorado and the Mountain West for in-person work: client meetings, board and staff retreats, and presentations to city councils, commissions, and agencies.
Contact us