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Track record

Our final polls next to the certified results

Our final pre-election polls next to the certified results. Judge the work for yourself.

Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, 2026

Our public poll of 500 likely voters, fielded October 26–28, has Democrat Amish Shah leading Republican Jay Feely 49% to 45%, including leaners, in a seat Republicans won in 2022 and 2024.

Nov. 3 Result pending. We add the certified result here next to our final poll.

Read the poll

Keating final pollOct. 26 to 28

Shah +4

Election resultNov. 3

Pending

500 likely voters, margin of error 4.4 points, 6% undecided.

Denver bond package, November 2025

Five bond questions on one ballot. We tracked all five for the campaign through three tracking surveys of likely Denver voters, hybrid phone and online, with the final read fielded October 27–28.

1.2 points average difference between our final poll and the result, across all five measures

2A Transportation and mobility

Poll
61%

Result
63%
2B Parks and recreation

Poll
69%

Result
67%
2C Health and human services

Poll
71%

Result
71%
2D City facilities

Poll
63%

Result
64%
2E Housing and shelter

Poll
68%

Result
67%

Colorado president, 2024

Our final Colorado poll had Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump 53% to 41%. She carried the state by 10.9 points.

Reported by The Colorado Sun.

President

Keating final pollOct. 28 to 30

Harris +12

Election resultcertified

Harris +10.9

600 likely voters, live phone and text-to-web, margin of error 4.0 points.

Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, 2022

Boebert vs. Frisch. Five weeks before the election, our survey for the Frisch campaign had the race at Boebert 47, Frisch 45, a statistical dead heat. Forecasters rated the seat safe for the incumbent. On election night the race was decided by 546 votes; Frisch closed the remaining two points in the final stretch.

546 votes out of more than 327,000 cast separated the candidates. No public forecast had the race anywhere near that close.

Reported by The Colorado Sun and The Hill.

Keating final pollSept. 28 to Oct. 2

Boebert +2

Election resultNov. 8, certified

Boebert +0.2

500 likely voters by live phone and text, margin of error 4.4 points, 7% undecided.

“There’s a very good pollster in Colorado, Chris Keating, president of Keating Research who’s polled for Adam Frisch … who ran in 2022 against incumbent Lauren Boebert and came incredibly close. … And it turned out that Keating was absolutely right [Frisch lost to Boebert by only 546 votes].”

Floyd Ciruli, Colorado pollster, in Rocky Mountain PBS, 2024

Colorado president and U.S. Senate, 2020

The final Keating–OnSight–Melanson (KOM) Colorado Poll had Joe Biden up 12 and John Hickenlooper up 11. Biden won Colorado by 13.5 points and Hickenlooper by 9.3.

Reported by The Colorado Sun. Full results: OnSight Public Affairs.

President

Keating final pollOct. 29 to Nov. 1

Biden +12

Election resultcertified

Biden +13.5

U.S. Senate

Keating final pollOct. 29 to Nov. 1

Hickenlooper +11

Election resultcertified

Hickenlooper +9.3

502 likely voters, online, margin of error 4.4 points.

Colorado governor, 2018

The final Keating–OnSight–Martin (KOM) Colorado Poll had Jared Polis leading Walker Stapleton 50% to 42%. Polis won by 10.6 points.

Reported by Colorado Politics.

Governor

Keating final pollOct. 25 to 30

Polis +8

Election resultcertified

Polis +10.6

517 likely voters, live phone, margin of error 4.3 points.

Colorado president, 2016

Our final Keating Research and OnSight Public Affairs poll had Hillary Clinton up 5, almost exactly her 4.9-point win in Colorado.

Reported by OnSight Public Affairs.

President

Keating final pollNov. 2 to 3

Clinton +5

Election resultcertified

Clinton +4.9

605 likely voters, live phone, margin of error 4.0 points.

Bond results are the certified Denver vote. Poll figures are the yes vote including leaners from the last tracking survey that asked each measure: Tracking Poll #3 (October 27–28, n=400) for 2A and 2D, and Tracking Poll #2 (October 13–15, n=500) for 2B, 2C, and 2E.

Final pre-election polls

Our final public poll before each of these elections, next to the certified result. Margins are percentage points; the difference is between the two margins.

1.5 pointsAverage difference between our final poll and the certified result across these 7 races

Year	Race	Keating final poll	Result	Difference	Winner ahead?
2024	President	Harris +12	Harris +10.9	1.1	Yes
2022	CO-3 U.S. House	Boebert +2	Boebert +0.2	1.8	Yes
2020	President	Biden +12	Biden +13.5	1.5	Yes
2020	U.S. Senate	Hickenlooper +11	Hickenlooper +9.3	1.7	Yes
2018	Governor	Polis +8	Polis +10.6	2.6	Yes
2016	President	Clinton +5	Clinton +4.9	0.1	Yes
2012	President	Obama +4	Obama +5.4	1.4	Yes

Colorado statewide races unless noted. The CO-3 poll was fielded five weeks before the election.

All of our public polls are listed on the public polling page; we add each one here once the results are certified.

Talk to us about your research

Keating Research is based in Denver. You work directly with the people who design, field, and analyze your research. We travel throughout Colorado and the Mountain West for in-person work: client meetings, board and staff retreats, and presentations to city councils, commissions, and agencies.