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Local ballot measures
Local ballot measure polling in Colorado
We poll city, town, and county ballot measures across Colorado: bond packages, sales and excise taxes, transit and airport questions, and referendums on city ordinances, for the campaigns that carry them and the governments that refer them.
Recent local measures we polled
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Crested Butte · 2026
Non-primary home and vacant lot tax
A graduated annual tax on homes that are not a primary residence, and on vacant lots, for town capital projects. Our June poll for the Town found 66% support, rising to 68% after voters heard arguments on both sides.
On the November 3, 2026 ballot
Read the poll → -
Aurora · 2026
Build Up Aurora
Three sales tax questions for transportation, public safety, and community facilities, financing $264.5 million in projects.
On the November 3, 2026 ballot
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Denver · 2025
Vibrant Denver bond package, 2A–2E
Five bond questions on one ballot. Our final tracking poll was 1.2 points from the result on average across all five.
All five passed, 63% to 71% yes
Poll vs. result, measure by measure → -
Denver · 2025
Referendum 310, flavored tobacco
A referendum on the City Council’s ordinance ending the sale of flavored tobacco and nicotine products.
Ordinance upheld, about 72% yes
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Telluride and San Miguel County · 2024
SMART gondola and transit funding, 3A
Property, sales, and lodging taxes raising $8.2 million a year so the regional transit authority can take over and eventually replace the Telluride–Mountain Village gondola and expand bus service.
Passed, 53% to 47%
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Aspen and Pitkin County · 2024
Aspen/Pitkin County Airport
Dueling airport questions: 1C reaffirmed the county commissioners’ authority over the runway plan; Question 200 would have required a public vote before runway changes.
1C passed with about two-thirds of the vote; 200 failed
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Denver · 2024
2Q, Denver Health funding
A 0.34% city sales tax increase to fund Denver Health, the city’s safety-net hospital, raising about $70 million a year.
Passed, about 57% yes
Polling for: Cities and towns · Counties · School districts · Special districts
What a local measure poll answers
- Can it pass? Support and intensity among the voters who will actually turn out, including how many are firmly yes.
- How much? Which dollar amount, rate, or duration voters will accept, and where support drops off.
- For what? Which projects and services voters care about, so the package leads with them.
- In what words? The ballot title voters will see. In Colorado, TABOR requires a tax or debt question to open with “SHALL (DISTRICT) TAXES BE INCREASED…” and the dollar amounts, so we test that language, not a paraphrase.
- With what argument? The case for and against, tested head to head, so the campaign knows its best message and the opposition’s strongest attack before either reaches voters.
Polling a local electorate
Local electorates are small and specific. We draw the sample from the voter file inside the exact boundary, whether that is a city spanning several counties, a school or transit district, or a town of a few thousand voters, and set completes by quota to a likely electorate modeled for that election. Turnout in an odd-year November election is lower and older than in a presidential year, so the model matters as much as the questionnaire.
Questions about local ballot measure polling
What local ballot measures does Keating Research poll?
City, town, and county bond packages, sales, property, lodging, and excise taxes, transit and airport questions, and referendums on city ordinances, for the campaigns that carry them and the local governments that refer them. Recent examples include Denver’s 2025 bond package, Denver Referendum 310, Denver Health’s 2Q, Telluride’s gondola funding measure, the Aspen/Pitkin County Airport questions, Build Up Aurora, and Crested Butte’s non-primary home tax.
When should a city or campaign poll a local ballot measure?
Early enough to change the measure. A feasibility poll before ballot language is final tells you whether it can pass, at what dollar amount or rate, with which projects, and with which arguments; tracking polls closer to the election show whether support is holding.
What does Colorado’s TABOR require of a local tax or debt question?
Under the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights (Colorado Constitution, Article X, Section 20), a new tax, a tax rate increase, or new multiple-fiscal-year debt needs voter approval, and the ballot title must begin with the required “SHALL (DISTRICT) TAXES BE INCREASED…” or “SHALL (DISTRICT) DEBT BE INCREASED…” language, including the dollar amounts. We test the title voters will actually see, not a friendlier paraphrase.
Can you poll a small town accurately?
Yes, with the right expectations. In a town of a few thousand voters, we design the poll to answer the decision in front of the council: whether a measure is clearly ahead, clearly behind, or too close to call, and which version and arguments do best.
How accurate have your local ballot measure polls been?
On Denver’s five-question bond package in 2025, our final tracking poll was 1.2 points from the certified result on average across all five measures.
Talk to us about your research
Keating Research is based in Denver. You work directly with the people who design, field, and analyze your research. We travel throughout Colorado and the Mountain West for in-person work: client meetings, board and staff retreats, and presentations to city councils, commissions, and agencies.
Contact us